The past two years have seen unprecedented political upheaval in Nigeria. As the country readies for elections Saturday, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its first real challenge since coming to power at the end of military rule in 1999 in the form of Nigeria’s lead opposition party, the All Progressive’s Congress (APC).
At least three regional Nigerian parties came together to form the mega-opposition party, the APC, in February 2013. It was a first for Nigeria, and naysayers said the new party would implode.
But then prominent PDP members started jumping ship for the APC.
Five governors came on board at once, then 37 representatives, then 11 senators. And the defections continued.
But the momentum stalled in 2014 as the PDP rebounded – with a new party leader and efforts to reconcile.
The defections started going both ways.
This back and forth continues even now with just days to go before presidential and parliamentary elections. The APC and the PDP keep gaining and losing members.
Analysts say the results of the March 28 vote could kick off another wave of party-swapping ahead of governor and state assembly races April 11.
“You find people jumping ship quite unashamedly to the party of the president-elect,” said Dawn Dimowo, a political analyst at the strategy firm Africa Practice in Abuja.
She said the ground the APC broke in Nigerian party politics had a lot to do with good timing.
“They were able to capitalize on the fact that there was disenchantment within the PDP. There were people who were ready to quit the party and move to the APC. So it got a big boost from that,” said Dimowo.
One of the main points of contention: whether President Goodluck Jonathan had broken the PDP agreement to rotate the presidency between north and south. Some within the PDP believed the north was owed another term when Jonathan, a southerner, ran and won in 2011.
But Nigerian political scientist Kabir Mato said the APC is riding a sea change.
“Citizens are gradually inching away from the traditional politics of ethnicity, religion and regionalism to a politics of dividends of democracy… So I think it’s simply the desire that there should exist an alternative that could give a platform for people in the event that we are dissatisfied with what’s happening here,” said Mato.
Jonathan has brushed off the defections. Such is politics, he told reporters in a televised media chat in February.
“There [are] no permanent friends. There [are] no permanent enemies. There are permanent interests,” said Jonathan.
The APC has a majority in the House. It counts 14 out of Nigeria’s 36 governors.
But Jonathan has the incumbent advantage. The ruling party is also seen as having benefited from the six-week election postponement over security issues in the north. But the vote still looks too close to call.
APC presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari dominated the mostly Muslim north in the 2011 vote but did poorly in the south. The APC has campaigned hard there this time, with Buhari swinging through the region again this week.
Political analyst Dimowo said the southwest tops her watch list.
“He’s going to pick up a lot more votes in the south this time around than he did in 2011 and that’s eroding the PDP’s base. So it’s quite exciting to see what is going to happen,” said Dimowo.
The APC has cast this election as a referendum on 16 years of PDP rule. The party symbol is a broom and it is pledging a clean sweep. But some wonder how much of an alternative the APC really is. There’s a fair bit of the PDP old guard in this new party, and probably more will join if Buhari wins.